Biofuels From Algae

"The "Biofuels Assessment Report", ever. You can read the "who participated". Much of this assessment dealt with conventional biomass, and mostly, the report did a fine job saying some bio systems are good, some are not so, and much depends on how you do it. Global warming remediation and economics were dominant parameters, although water, state of the technology and other factors were considered."

Let me focus on what many think might be the most promising ultimate bio option. I've been surveying colleagues for several years now on biofuels from algae, and the speculations on potential cost are all over the map. But the potential is exciting, for it is said that you can grow several times (factor of two to ten, you pick a number) more biomass from an aqueous environment than on land. Mind you, this point remains debatable.

Part of the reason given is that terrestrial plants need to pass nutrients only through thin roots, defying gravity, while aquatic micro and macro species can use the total surface area. Plus, genetic engineering can more readily be applied for a micro system, which has an effective doubling time of hours, not weeks, months or years.

For this analysis, I will focus on microalgae grown in saline water on land. A follow-up article will review prospects for macroalgae (such as kelp), the form pioneered in the open ocean by Howard Wilcox as early as 1968, and now, mostly being investigated today by the Japanese. This early work mostly led to methane by fermentation and as feed for animals. Recent interest added ethanol to the product mix. A third posting will blue-sky the prospects for actually attempting to utilize the effluent from ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC) plantships to manage microalgal farms at sea. My speculation is that terrestrial microalgal and marine macroalgal biofuels/feed systems are a decade away from commercialization if the price of oil by then exceeds 125/barrel. The combination of our sun, the ocean, microalgae, OTEC, and genetic engineering for sustainable marine biofuels (hydrogen, alcohols, biodiesel, etc.) is probably a generation or two away. This would be an element of the Blue Revolution.

I begun to be involved with growing algae in raceways a third of a century ago, and from then till now, have observed that federal funding was spotty and mostly non-existent. There was never a truly orchestrated national program and sporadic attempts at organization were thwarted by the fickle price of oil. There remain today too many unknowns and uncertainties, for the due diligence and science have not yet been performed. The fundamental engineering was never initiated, and remains a knowledge gap, for this work should proceed in parallel to someday mesh with the science. The National Science Foundation for the past few decades has tended to avoid funding energy projects, mostly a jurisdictional attitude in favor of the Department of Energy, but is finally beginning to recognize this deficiency and has initiated steps to take a more active role.

So let's get to the heart of the matter regarding terrestrial microalgal biofuels production: the eventual cost of production. In general, the price of crude oil is a good an indicator as any of what biofuels from algae facilities must meet to be competitive. Let us look at the numbers. Crude oil today costs 80/barrel, or 1.90/gallon. The current USA average is 2.73/gallon for regular gas. The ratio is 1.43, that is, gasoline costs 43% more than crude oil. This ratio was 1.64 in 2008, 1.85 in 2007 and 1.92 in 2006. The differential accounts for profits, taxes, marketing, etc., and will drop as the price of crude oil rises, save for added taxes. European gasoline taxes, for example are considerably higher than in the U.S. There were times last year when gas sold for more than 11/gallon in Norway and Germany.

One way of looking at this is if the best industry can do is produce biofuels for 5/gallon, then oil needs to go up to 220/barrel. If the production cost can be reduced to 3/gallon, then, oil would only need to rise to 126/barrel. My gut feeling is that 3/gallon will only be attained with considerable R"> However, there is the matter of life cycle costing, and if the financing can proceed with the confidence that oil will rise beyond 150/barrel, with attractive government incentives, there is no reason to doubt the establishment of these operations relatively soon, even if oil only might be in the range of 100/barrel.

Recognizing my mental assessment of what knowledgeable colleagues tell me about microalgal biofuels today costing about 50/gallon, and a few entrepreneurs (of significant dubiousness)

2.....Department of Energy (very unofficial, but murmured)

half of energy use in the military is for jet fuel, so they better be concerned. Ah, the private sector: Hawaiian Hydrogen Clipper, by some miracle, suddenly gains an Apollo-like following, with mushrooming wind farms, geothermal fields and OTEC plantships providing cost-effective hydrogen. Yes, dreaming...but not much more than the reality of bio jet fuel from algae.

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The Dow Jones Industrials surge 204 to 10006, while markets in the Orient swoon and those in Europe rise. Gold rose 2/toz to 1091 and oil is now back to 80/barrel.

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Tropical Storm Ida made landfall, and will bring considerable rain to Nicaragua and Honduras, but will weaken, than escape into the Caribbean, and possibly strengthen.

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